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I
DISCUSSED in two previous columns the opportunities
arising from the food crisis, particularly in developing
agriculture as an engine of economic growth. I don’t
know how many people have noticed it, but there’s a
pleasant change going on in the culture of doing
business.
Some
companies, instead of being deterred by the current
crises—the credit crunch in the United States and its
recession, the global economic slowdown, and the food
and energy crises—are looking at ways to strengthen
their businesses and develop new revenue and profit
streams.
Indeed,
as I wrote earlier, we are in a very good position to
cope with the price-and-supply problems besetting rice
and other food crops because we have ample agricultural
resources. We just have to exploit the opportunities to
expand cultivated areas, increase production from
commercial farms and support our farmers.
We can
do the same thing with our perennial oil problem. We
import about half of our total energy requirements, and
almost all of the fuel requirements of our public and
private transport systems.
And it
is not because we don’t have oil, but because we’re not
looking for it as much as oil-producing countries do.
Oil exploration continues in the Middle East, in both
North and South Americas, in Europe and in Asia.
Compared
with them, oil-exploration activities in the Philippines
are like a few fishing rods trying to hook a whale in an
ocean. The possibility of making a major oil strike
depends entirely on luck, not on investments.
But,
look at the business sector, the mall builders continue
to put up shopping complexes, property developers
continue to open up subdivisions and build residential
and office towers, telecom companies continue to launch
new products and services while they expand geographical
and demographic reach. We hear many complaints about the
impact of the global slowdown, but we don’t see major
shutdowns in domestic industries.
This is
opportunity in crisis at work, and this should also be
our motto in coping with the oil problem. The food and
energy and commodities crises are realities, and we must
no longer be in denial.
But
instead of crying over these misfortunes, we should,
instead, take advantage of the opportunities that draw
out of these crises. With the price of oil surpassing
the $120-per-barrel mark and forecast to hit as high as
$200 by October, what used to be considered not feasible
in oil exploration is already feasible.
We
should maximize the yield from the Malampaya natural gas
and oil complex off Palawan. Prospective investors say
the oil in the offshore field must be taken out as early
as possible because the continuing removal of natural
gas will reduce the amount of oil that could be produced
from the area.
The
government’s response to the first oil crisis in the
’70s was to create a Department of Energy and to adopt
an oil exploration and development program, whose main
component, the service area contract, is still being
followed today.
At that
time, the
Philippines
attracted a lot of interest and capital for oil
exploration. The sad thing is that the interest waned
after the Nido and Galoc discoveries, and it was not
because we did not have oil. It was because the crisis
ended, and we lacked the foresight to sustain the
exploration program. Otherwise, we would have been an
oil producer now.
I’m not
engaging in any fantasy. Our closest neighbors are major
oil producers: Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia. We share
with them the seas under which they extract oil.
The
recent report from Nido Petroleum Ltd. of Australia,
which is still exploring for oil in offshore Palawan,
should be a strong wake-up call for all of us. In a
disclosure to the Australian Stock Exchange, the listed
company said it had identified 11.6 billion barrels of
oil-in-place potential in its three Northwest Palawan
service contracts.
The
announcement from Jocot de Dios, Nido’s chief executive
officer, is very encouraging.
“After
10 years of diligent effort we are delighted to reach
this critical milestone,” he said. “Nido has long
believed in the potential of the NW Palawan Basin to be
an overlooked exploration province. Our efforts to date
vindicate that view, and have revealed a potential prize
greater than our expectations. Given the sizes of the
identified drilling targets, it is apparent that just
one discovery has the potential to transform Nido—we
intend to drill up to 20 of these large prospects over
the coming years. This is the dawn of an exciting era
for Nido.”
According to Jon Patillo, Nido’s head of exploration, 10
of the 20 largest prospects have a total potential of
more than 8 billion barrels of oil. Eight other leads
have 3.1 billion barrels of oil-in-place potential and
the remaining two have 427 million barrels.
The
company, which is looking for partners to help develop
the oil finds, is right. This could be, indeed, the
“dawn of an exciting era” not only for Nido or for
Palawan, but surely for all of us in the Philippines.
We
consume 340,000 barrels of oil a day; that’s 124 million
barrels a year. Based on these figures, the new Nido
discovery will satisfy all of our requirements for more
than 90 years.
Nido
Petroleum is currently looking for a strategic partner
to help it exploit the new oil discoveries. This should
be, given the current oil crisis, a very good
opportunity to launch a new program to attract
investments in oil exploration.
Just
like food, the era of cheap oil prices is gone because
the growing global population and growing economies will
continue pushing up demand for oil, whose known reserves
are fast being depleted.
In the
face of the current global crises, the odds are stacked
in our favor. We are endowed with a lot of resources,
but we must quickly act—identify and exploit the
opportunities that the crises have opened for us!
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