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    Beating the oil crisis

    I DISCUSSED in two previous columns the opportunities arising from the food crisis, particularly in developing agriculture as an engine of economic growth. I don’t know how many people have noticed it, but there’s a pleasant change going on in the culture of doing business.

    Some companies, instead of being deterred by the current crises—the credit crunch in the United States and its recession, the global economic slowdown, and the food and energy crises—are looking at ways to strengthen their businesses and develop new revenue and profit streams.

    Indeed, as I wrote earlier, we are in a very good position to cope with the price-and-supply problems besetting rice and other food crops because we have ample agricultural resources. We just have to exploit the opportunities to expand cultivated areas, increase production from commercial farms and support our farmers.

    We can do the same thing with our perennial oil problem. We import about half of our total energy requirements, and almost all of the fuel requirements of our public and private transport systems.

    And it is not because we don’t have oil, but because we’re not looking for it as much as oil-producing countries do. Oil exploration continues in the Middle East, in both North and South Americas, in Europe and in Asia.

    Compared with them, oil-exploration activities in the Philippines are like a few fishing rods trying to hook a whale in an ocean. The possibility of making a major oil strike depends entirely on luck, not on investments.

    But, look at the business sector, the mall builders continue to put up shopping complexes, property developers continue to open up subdivisions and build residential and office towers, telecom companies continue to launch new products and services while they expand geographical and demographic reach. We hear many complaints about the impact of the global slowdown, but we don’t see major shutdowns in domestic industries.

    This is opportunity in crisis at work, and this should also be our motto in coping with the oil problem. The food and energy and commodities crises are realities, and we must no longer be in denial.

    But instead of crying over these misfortunes, we should, instead, take advantage of the opportunities that draw out of these crises. With the price of oil surpassing the $120-per-barrel mark and forecast to hit as high as $200 by October, what used to be considered not feasible in oil exploration is already feasible.

    We should maximize the yield from the Malampaya natural gas and oil complex off Palawan. Prospective investors say the oil in the offshore field must be taken out as early as possible because the continuing removal of natural gas will reduce the amount of oil that could be produced from the area.

    The government’s response to the first oil crisis in the ’70s was to create a Department of Energy and to adopt an oil exploration and development program, whose main component, the service area contract, is still being followed today.

    At that time, the Philippines attracted a lot of interest and capital for oil exploration. The sad thing is that the interest waned after the Nido and Galoc discoveries, and it was not because we did not have oil. It was because the crisis ended, and we lacked the foresight to sustain the exploration program. Otherwise, we would have been an oil producer now.

    I’m not engaging in any fantasy. Our closest neighbors are major oil producers: Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia. We share with them the seas under which they extract oil.

    The recent report from Nido Petroleum Ltd. of Australia, which is still exploring for oil in offshore Palawan, should be a strong wake-up call for all of us. In a disclosure to the Australian Stock Exchange, the listed company said it had identified 11.6 billion barrels of oil-in-place potential in its three Northwest Palawan service contracts.

    The announcement from Jocot de Dios, Nido’s chief executive officer, is very encouraging.

    “After 10 years of diligent effort we are delighted to reach this critical milestone,” he said. “Nido has long believed in the potential of the NW Palawan Basin to be an overlooked exploration province. Our efforts to date vindicate that view, and have revealed a potential prize greater than our expectations. Given the sizes of the identified drilling targets, it is apparent that just one discovery has the potential to transform Nido—we intend to drill up to 20 of these large prospects over the coming years. This is the dawn of an exciting era for Nido.”

    According to Jon Patillo, Nido’s head of exploration, 10 of the 20 largest prospects have a total potential of more than 8 billion barrels of oil. Eight other leads have 3.1 billion barrels of oil-in-place potential and the remaining two have 427 million barrels.

    The company, which is looking for partners to help develop the oil finds, is right. This could be, indeed, the “dawn of an exciting era” not only for Nido or for Palawan, but surely for all of us in the Philippines.

    We consume 340,000 barrels of oil a day; that’s 124 million barrels a year. Based on these figures, the new Nido discovery will satisfy all of our requirements for more than 90 years.

    Nido Petroleum is currently looking for a strategic partner to help it exploit the new oil discoveries. This should be, given the current oil crisis, a very good opportunity to launch a new program to attract investments in oil exploration.

    Just like food, the era of cheap oil prices is gone because the growing global population and growing economies will continue pushing up demand for oil, whose known reserves are fast being depleted.

    In the face of the current global crises, the odds are stacked in our favor. We are endowed with a lot of resources, but we must quickly act—identify and exploit the opportunities that the crises have opened for us! 

    You may send your comments/feedback to mbvillar_comments@yahoo.com

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