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Yesterday the international investment house Goldman
Sachs forecast that crude oil will reach as high as $200
per barrel within the next 24 months.
This
might be dismissed as typical investment-market chatter
if not for the fact that these same oil analysts at
Goldman predicted in 2005 that oil would breach $100 a
barrel. That would put the price of a liter of gasoline
at P100 just in time for the 2010 presidential election.
And
having to pay P100 for a liter of gasoline might just be
good thing for the Philippines.
When,
two years ago, oil was $50 and Goldman forecast $100,
the Philippines’ political leaders did nothing to
prepare for $100. Now they have the opportunity to
prepare for $200 a barrel.
Who
wants to be the next president? Raise your hand. I have
the guaranteed political strategy for making you the
overwhelming landslide choice in 2010. Tell the people
what you are doing today to handle a doubling of oil
prices in two years. Because all the other contenders
are going to tell the people what they will do after
they take office and after gasoline doubles in price. It
will be too late, then, to take action, just as it is
now.
Here’s
another thing to consider for your political campaign.
If conditions continue unchanged, you may not be able to
afford to give away that T-shirt and can of sardines to
win a few extra votes. And your provincial political
sortie might have to be on the back of a carabao instead
of a Ford Expedition.
People
worry about how much it costs for a tank of gas while
Dubai, using our Filipino workers, is spending billions
of dollars, some of it ours, to build artificial islands
as playgrounds for the rich and famous.
However,
no one is confident that solutions will be sought until
the problem grows bigger. And that is why P100 gasoline
might be good for the country. At P50, the pain is still
bearable. When the situation deteriorates and the pain
hurts badly enough, then the leaders might finally take
some constructive action. We have seen this happen
before.
Eight-hour brownouts apparently were not a major problem
for the government to solve. Just declare every Monday a
nonworking holiday. Only when there wasn’t any
electricity for 12 hours or more (and Fidel Ramos became
President) was substantive action taken.
Look at
the current situation and certain political leaders’
responses to it. It would be funny if it were not so
tragic for the country. One politician demands that the
government increase the rice-price subsidy now that rice
is nearly P50 a kilo. Does that idea keep us from
importing even one extra grain of rice? No. Another
wants to stop charging the expanded value-added tax, or
EVAT, on gasoline. Does that increase the
Philippines’
oil production by one drop? Of course not.
There
must be something in the air inside government offices
and legislative halls around the world that causes
political leaders to lose their common sense. Ideas and
policies they would never apply in their own
occupation—be it in commerce, education, medicine and
media—are often the standard when they enter politics.
Virtually every government leader has, directly or
indirectly, engaged in wealth creation in the private
sector. They built something, taught others to build or
found the capital and noncapital resources to create
wealth. But when they join the government, they suddenly
forget how to create national wealth.
Sure,
some of our leaders come from wealthy families, but in
every one of these families, someone sometime started
with very little and created wealth that survived and
thrived through generations. Others not born into such
rich families began with very little but went on to
succeed financially.
We
should be fortunate in the
Philippines
because we do not have professional politicians like in
the United States, for example. Al Gore worked four
years outside of politics as a part-time newspaper
reporter. Barack Obama worked two years of his life in
the private sector and as a part-time college lecturer
and part-time lawyer. Hillary Clinton worked a total of
four years as an attorney.
You want
more and cheaper rice? Grow it. You need domestic oil so
as not to be hostage to the Middle East oil sheiks? Dig
it up.
No
nation taxed, untaxed, subsidized, politicized or
legislated itself to prosperity. They created wealth.
Why is Vietnam now a net rice exporter? When I last
visited it in 1990, this was the only national rice
policy: “Everybody grow rice!” Every square meter of
usable land in rice-friendly areas was planted. The
monthly salary of the hotel night manager was $5.
We have
huge mineral wealth. Do we dig it up? No. We may have
enough oil for self-sufficiency. Do we exploit it? No.
Find a
leader who applies the same wealth-creation techniques
and policies in government that they do in the real
world. Maybe P100-a-liter gasoline will bring that
person to the top and something might be accomplished.
Comments to mangun@email.com. |
