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MADRID,
Spain—The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) envisions the Asian region
to become the world’s main engine of economic growth—one
that has its own currency and allows for the substantial
movement of all workers by 2020.
In its
report titled “Emerging Asian Regionalism,” the ADB said
Asia will account for as much as 35 percent of world
gross domestic product (GDP), from only 28 percent in
2005.
“Prediction is always hazardous, but there is good
reason to expect Asia to have a bright economic future.
Even if growth in the PRC [People’s Republic of China]
and India slows somewhat, Asia’s share of world output
is likely to expand from 28 percent in 2005 to 35
percent in 2020 in purchasing-power parity [PPP] terms,”
the ADB said.
“By
then, Asia’s GDP is set to be more than 50-percent
larger than the European Union’s or North America’s,”
the report stated.
The
report said the
Philippines
will grow at an average of 3.6 percent from 2005 to 2020
and, at PPP, its GDP will increase to $421 billion in
2020 from $250 billion in 2005.
There
will also be more Filipinos by 2020, around 103.3
million, higher than 2007’s 88.7 million. This will
bring per capita GDP, at market prices, to increase
moderately to P1,607 in 2020 from P1,158 in 2005.
To get
to this vision of 2020, the ADB said
Asia must integrate production and financial markets, manage
economic interdependence and make growth inclusive and
sustainable.
The ADB
said integration of production can be achieved by
supporting the integration of the region’s production
networks and sustaining an open, rules-based global
system of trade and investment.
With the
World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha round of talks at a
standstill, the ADB said substantial gains may be
realized from consolidating free-trade agreements into a
single region-wide agreement.
Meanwhile, the ADB said improvements in financial
systems in the region, which is marked by better
regulatory structures, may lead to deeper
financial-market integration.
This,
the bank said, will also generate greater confidence in
financial institutions and protect investors.
“These
could lead to a virtuous cycle: greater investments in
regional markets, including [those] by Asian investors,
would generate new products and services that make
markets more efficient and attractive,” the ADB said.
On the
other hand, creating an “Asian Secretariat for Economic
Cooperation” that would consolidate the region’s
macroeconomic and exchange-rate policies would help the
region better manage macroeconomic interdependence.
The ADB
said countries may also explore early initiatives in
policy coordination such as those done through ad hoc
actions to manage exchange-rate adjustments. |
