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lot is expected of the economy this year in terms of
growth, but the national government managed its
expectations by aiming at lower than the officially
acknowledged 6.3-percent to 7-percent range for the
year.
According to Finance Secretary Margarito Teves, local
output measured as the gross domestic product (GDP) was
seen to expand by only around 6.1 percent, or lower than
even the low end of the target.
He told
reporters this was part of the year’s macroeconomic
assumptions, recognizing an even growth rate of 8
percent for both export and import activities, inflation
ranging from 4 percent to 5 percent, average tariff rate
of 5.6 percent, Treasury bill rates of up to 4 percent
and peso exchange rate averaging P46 per dollar.
The
admission is significant in that the Development and
Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), or the economic
management cluster of the Cabinet, continues to operate
on the basis of the official growth target—though deputy
central bank governor Diwa Guinigundo told a forum last
Monday the DBCC will likely revise downwards most of the
macroeconomic assumptions it made for this year,
suggesting a weaker Philippine economy as a result of
the recession in the United States and a rice shortage.
Finance
Undersecretary Gil Beltran explained on Thursday’s DOF
briefing that the 6.1-percent growth goal was actually
the original target, but was later replaced after actual
GDP expanded at the 31-year high of 7.3 percent last
year.
“But we
should still hit the low end of the growth target,”
Teves said optimistically of prospects for 2008.
The
consensus growth forecasts by both overseas and domestic
analysts point to growth averaging 5.8 percent or 5.9
percent during the year.
Teves
acknowledged the cautious stance was in recognition of
an “environment deteriorated from what we saw in the
second half last year.”
Teves
pulled down last year’s deficit to just P12.4 billion
instead of the consensus P63 billion, in large part
because of one-off proceeds from a number of state
assets.
He also
reported a budgetary shortfall totaling P51.6 billion in
the first three months, which was P8.7 billion or 0.8
percent lower than program.
However,
Teves reported expenses totaling only P305.1 billion
instead of P309.8 billion in the program—when logically,
government should have spent more because of its intent
to frontload expenditures in the first half.
Even if
interest expense was netted out, expenditures still fell
short of goal to only P204.8 billion for the period
instead of P207.5 billion.
Revenues
did grow by 6.8 percent year-on-year to P253.5 billion
when the program anticipated only P249.6 billion, and
compares well against year-ago revenues of only P237.3
billion.
The
Bureau of Internal Revenue reported cash and noncash
collections totaling P166.6 billion or P6.6 billion more
than the program.
But the
Bureau of Customs fell short of goal this time around,
having collected only P48.9 billion when it was told to
collect at least P51.8 billion.
The
Bureau of Treasury under Roberto Tan exceeded its goal
by P400 million by reporting total collections of P17.1
billion.
The
other offices reported collections totaling P21 billion
or P300 million below the goal. |
