|
“Somebody told me how frightening it was how much
topsoil we are losing each year, but I told that story
around the campfire and nobody got scared.”
—“Deep
Thoughts” by Jack Handey
Nobody
listens to scientists until it’s too late. Scientists
who warned the world’s leaders about unsustainable
development were ignored, laughed at and called “tree
huggers” until food riots in Haiti, Bangladesh and Egypt
made politicians everywhere take notice.
A week
ago the managing director of the International Monetary
Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said
rising food prices and shortages, the end result of
unsustainable development, could lead to mass starvation
and wars.
“[T]housands, hundreds of thousands of people will be
starving. Children will be suffering from malnutrition,
with consequences for all their lives,” said
Strauss-Kahn. He continued: “As we know, learning from
the past, those kinds of questions sometimes end in
war.”
The US
Department of Defense made the same projection four
years ago in a study called “An Abrupt Climate-Change
Scenario and Its Implications for United States National
Security.”
The
Pentagon projected a frightening future.
Harvard University
professor Allen W. Shearer said, “The study outlined a
possible future with climatic conditions similar to
those 8,200 years ago and speculated on implications
related to the subsequent availability of food, water,
and energy.”
Here, as
summarized by the British paper The Observer, are
the Pentagon’s projections:
• By
2010, the
United States
and Europe will experience a third more days with peak
temperatures above 90°F. Climate becomes an “economic
nuisance” as storms, droughts and hot spells create
havoc for farmers.
•
Between 2010 and 2020. . . climate in Britain becomes
colder and drier as weather patterns begin to resemble
Siberia.
• Access
to water becomes a major battleground. The Nile, Danube
and Amazon are all mentioned as being high-risk.
• More
than 400 million people in subtropical regions [are] in
grave risk.
•
Megadroughts affect the world’s major breadbaskets,
including America’s Midwest, where strong winds bring
soil loss.
• A
“significant drop” in the planet’s ability to sustain
its present population will become apparent over the
next 20 years.
•
China’s huge population and food demand makes it
particularly vulnerable. Bangladesh becomes nearly
uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which
contaminates the inland water supplies.
• Rich
areas like the
United States
and Europe would become “virtual fortresses” to prevent
millions of migrants from entering after being forced
from land drowned by sea-level rise or no longer able to
grow crops. Waves of boat people pose significant
problems.
• Europe
will face huge internal struggles as it copes with
massive numbers of migrants washing up on its shores.
Immigrants from Scandinavia seek warmer climes to the
south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from
hard-hit countries in
Africa.
•
Nuclear-arms proliferation is inevitable. Japan, South
Korea and Germany develop nuclear-weapons capabilities,
as do Iran, Egypt and North Korea. Israel, China, India
and Pakistan are also poised to use the bomb.
•Future
wars will be fought over the issue of survival rather
than religion, ideology or national honor.
• Deaths
from war and famine run into the millions until the
planet’s population is reduced to such an extent so that
the Earth can cope.
Yesterday, I saw people lining up for National Food
Authority rice. It was the 38th anniversary of Earth
Day.
Buencamino is a fellow of Action for Economic Reforms (www.aer.ph). |
