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If the
presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) is doubled in the
atmosphere as a result of climate change, temperatures and
rainfall in most regions of the country will increase 2°C
to 3°C and 50 percent to 100 percent, respectively, which
could mean a 30-percent to 100-percent reduction in crop
yield.
This was
based on the
Canadian
Climate Center
model as reported by Dr. Juan M. Pulhin, one
of the lead authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), which was a recipient of the 2007
Nobel Peace Prize together with former US Vice President
Al Gore.
PULHIN
--Searca
photo
Increased
CO2 in the atmosphere equals higher temperature
According
to experts, human activities produce greenhouse gases,
such as carbon dioxide, from deforestation and machines
and vehicles that use coal, oil and natural gas; methane
produced from animal waste, landfill and domestic waste,
rice paddies, coal beds and leaks from gas pipelines;
nitrous oxide from intensive agricultural activities;
chlorofluorocarbons from industrial processes, and ozone
from power plants and oil refineries.
Among
these gases, experts specify carbon dioxide to have a
strong correlation between increased temperature through
time and concentration in the atmosphere.
Pulhin, an
associate professor at the University of the Philippines
Los Baños (UPLB), noted that in 2005 concentration of
carbon dioxide exceeded the natural range over the last
650,000 years.
Climate
change aggravates rice production in the
Philippines; expert offers ways to mitigate impacts
Pulhin
said agricultural production, particularly rice, is
vulnerable and will gain more stress as climate change
continues to persist.
This
observation was consistent with the results of the study,
“Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from
Global Warming,” conducted at the International Rice
Research Institute farm from 1979 to 2003 by Dr. Shaobing
Peng, Dr. Gurdev Khush and other scientists.
The study
reported a close link between rice-grain yield and mean
minimum temperature during the dry cropping season
(January to April). Results show that grain yield declined
by 10 percent for each 1°C increase in growing-season
minimum temperature in the dry season.
Pulhin
stressed that mitigation and adaptation to climate change
are urgently needed to prevent further emission of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. He noted that
continued emission at or above current rate would induce
larger climatic changes than those observed in the 20th
century.
To respond
to the impacts of climate change—such as a rise in food
competition and hunger, reduced water availability,
health-related problems (e.g. occurrence of diseases like
malaria, dengue, cholera, etc.), flooding, increased
energy demand for space cooling, forest fires, among other
events—the IPCC, through Pulhin, offered some technologies
and practices.
The IPCC
recommends energy-supply efficiency by fuel switching;
using renewable energy sources like hydropower, solar,
wind, geothermal and bionergy; and early application of
carbon-dioxide capture and storage.
Pulhin
underscored the use of fuel-efficient transport and
biofuel, a shift from road transport to rail and
public-transport systems, cycling and walking to help the
transport sector lessen such impacts.
Efficient
lighting and use of appliance, improved insulation, solar
heating and cooling, and alternatives for fluorinated
gases in insulation and appliance are recommended for
maintaining buildings, establishments, residential areas
and keeping them from further contributing to global
warming.
The IPCC
also laid down key policies to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions. Among these are appropriate incentives for
development of technologies; effective carbon price signal
to create incentives to invest in low-greenhouse gas
products, technologies and processes; appropriate energy
infras-tructure investment decisions, which have long-term
effects on emissions; and changes in lifestyle and
behavior patterns especially in building, transport and
industrial sectors.
Bicol
provinces vulnerable to climate change
Reports
indicate that Albay, a province in southeast Luzon, has
been experiencing adverse effects of climate change. In an
attempt to integrate topics on climate change in the
educational system, the UPLB Interdisciplinary Program on
Climate Change,
School of
Environmental Science
and Management, and College of Forestry and Natural
Resources formed a program mainstreaming climate change in
primary schools of Albay. Pulhin said the program will be
tested in May.
Also on
Bicol peninsula, Dr. Tonie Balangue, executive director of
the Resources Environment and
Economic
Center
for Studies, reported that watershed-management
interventions at Yabo and Inarihan watersheds of Mount
Isarog, Naga City, Camarines Sur, would help mitigate
climate- change impacts on the region.
In his
paper, “Reducing Upland Poverty, Mitigating Climate Change
Impacts, Increasing Biofuel Sources and Providing
Sustainable Supply of Raw Water through Implementation of
Community-based Equitable Payment for Watershed Services,”
Balangue emphasized that, among other
watershed-development activities, forestation using
diverse species of jackfruit, vetiver and mixed
dipterocarps will help lessen the risks of climate change.
Balangue
said such plant species show potential in carbon
sequestration estimated at 12,700 tons of carbon,
amounting to P2.5 million a year.
Global
warming first eyed in the
Philippines in 1950s
Records
show that global warming has occurred in the Philippines
as early as 1951. El Niño phenomenon was observed to
become more frequent since 1980, causing a sudden drop in
rice production in 1982 and 1983.
Rising sea
levels is another indicator of climate change. According
to Pulhin, since the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps
have experienced widespread mass losses, which have
contributed to sea-level rise. Consequently, the country’s
annual mean sea level has increased since the 1960s.
With an
annual average of 19 to 20 typhoons and an increasing
number of typhoons with more than 185 kilometer per hour
wind speed hitting the Philippines since 1948, plus an
increased sea-level rise, flooding in many residential
districts has since appeared common.
Pulhin was
guest speaker at the symposium, “Agriculture, Forestry and
Industries in Calabarzon: An Environmental Imperative,”
sponsored by the Philippine Agricultural Journalists Inc.-Calabarzon
Chapter on its second anniversary celebration. The
symposium was cosponsored by the Agriculture and
Development Seminar Series (ADSS) of the Southeast Asian
Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in
Agriculture (Searca) held on April 11 in Los Baños,
Laguna.
Balangue,
on the other hand, gave his lecture also at Searca’s ADSS
on 15 April.
As part of
its commitment to fostering natural-resource management,
Searca will hold a training workshop entitled “Responding
to Changing Climate: Knowledge-based Strategies to
Managing Risks in Agricultural Production.” It will
involve natural-resource management. and disaster and risk
management at the local, national and regional levels with
proactive approaches in managing risks caused by natural
calamities. | 
