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    2010 or beyond?

    While some continue to question the veracity of an impending rice shortage, recent price increases are enough to indicate that the commodity is now actually in short supply. And whether the supply gap is the result of hoarding or of market forces no longer matters. Fact is, the staple is not as accessible as it used to be, particularly to marginal-income earners. And this poses a big problem.

    Unfortunately, proposed remedies of late don’t seem to cut it—with interest seemingly in addressing just political rather than food security. A case in point is the President’s order for tripartite wage boards to consider raising wages if only to help improve people’s purchasing power as a way of mitigating the rising prices of rice, bread, meat and other food products.

    Obviously, raising wages will offer only temporary relief. Worse, it offers no strategic value to a sustainable improvement in rice supply, and a long-lasting solution to rising food prices and hunger. After all, what’s the point in having more money if there is nothing to buy, anyway? That is, unless it is the government’s intention to make rice more affordable at least until 2010 and then let the next administration worry about it.

    Another questionable proposal is the grant of limited emergency powers to the President to help address the food crisis. The Philippines’ past experience with emergency powers should be enough to deter lawmakers from considering such an exercise now. In the early 1990s such powers were necessary for the country to address a power shortage. And through such emergency powers, then-President Fidel Ramos did resolve the problem. But 10 years after he stepped down from office, the country is again experiencing power outages, more so now in the summer months. And reports indicate that the problem is only partially resolved in the sense that the Philippines now charges among the highest electricity prices in Asia, and that until additional investments in the power industry are made, a power shortage is likely to reoccur.

    Only recently, there was also a proposal for the government to bypass traders and middlemen in the rice trade. Again, this will be only a temporary solution and will not present any long-lasting effects on rice supply or food security in general. Traders or middlemen currently play a significant role in rice trade, not only by offering market access but also by providing financing to farmers. It is doubtful if the government can replicate the infrastructure and resources dedicated by middlemen to the rice trade. And without such surrogate support, rice farmers will continue to be in trouble.

    Temporary suspension of land conversion and rezoning is perhaps a step in the right direction. But more important now is a clear inventory by the government of all available private and public farmlands, with particular emphasis on land that is idle and uncultivated. A short drive to Southern and Central Luzon will show you vast tracts of agricultural land, either private or public, that has been left idle. After such inventory, the government can consider programs to cultivate such idle lands, or at least encourage the private sector to cultivate such lands by offering incentives such as free patent.

    Farming in the Philippines is not very lucrative, not like in the United States or Europe where farmers comprise a strong economic sector that can demand privileges and benefits. Perhaps this is one reason many farmers have opted for turning to industries and daily wages rather than working the land for subsistence and profit. And while many industrialists have now turned to farming as a form of productive retirement, many have set their sights on the export markets for prawns, mangoes, bananas, cut flowers and other farm products. While many continue to persist in the rice trade, obviously, not enough resources has been put into it.

    To some extent, globalization has also made life difficult for many farming communities. Support has been diverted to so-called high-value crops with strong export potential. And while the government has initiated programs to support local farmers in the face of global trade, recent reports indicate a lot of funds have instead been lost to corruption.

    To date, it remains uncertain whether the government, particularly the Arroyo administration, can muster enough resources to effect lasting changes in agriculture that will balance supply self-sufficiency with farmer profitability. It also remains uncertain whether the administration is actually looking at strategic long-term solutions to agriculture’s problems, or is just trying to buy time to keep itself in place until the 2010 elections? 

    Comments to matort@yahoo.com

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