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THE
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) vowed Friday not to
surrender the least bit of ground to inflation even with
the price of certain food and oil-related items already
wreaking havoc on price stability.
But even
with the firm resolve, the policymaking Monetary Board
has already signaled for inflation to push past the
5-percent ceiling targeted for this year.
Deputy
BSP Governor Diwa Guinigundo said Friday there is
strong likelihood the average inflation for the year
will push past the target range of 3 percent to 5
percent.
He meant
for inflation to continue to assume the humped profile,
or one that steadily moves up the scale starting January
and gradually tapers down toward year-end.
However,
the hump profile should prove longer and deeper into the
year than originally seen as price pressures, generally
supply-driven, have proven nastier than originally seen
as well, Guinigundo explained.
A longer
and deeper hump means inflation was likely to move past
the 5-percent ceiling seen this year.
But even
as prices move up, overall growth measured in terms of
the gross domestic product should continue to range
between 6.3 percent up to even 7 percent.
“Unlike
the International Monetary Fund [IMF] and others looking
at the Philippines, I continue to believe in growth
sustained from last year’s level,” Guinigundo said.
Actual
GDP averaged 7.3 percent last year on the back of robust
private- sector and government consumption activities.
He said
the economic managers, meeting as the Development and
Budget Coordination Committee, were expected to review
the year’s macroeconomic forecasts during the
April-to-May period.
The
review covers such numbers as overall growth, inflation,
the exchange rate, interest rates and even the price of
oil in the world market that helps them plot where the
economic future of the country was likely to be over the
near term.
“We will
not change the targets, just the forecast,” Guinigundo
stressed.
The
macroeconomic targets are numbers the economic managers
consciously try to achieve given all relevant data at
the moment versus the same numbers whose values change
as the interplay of economic factors act on them over
time.
Guinigundo thinks the price of world oil, forecast to
range from $88 to $98 a barrel, has actually averaged
$92 a barrel as of latest, sharply up from year-ago
forecast ranging from $63 to $72 a barrrel.
“But I
would like to believe the forecast price of oil should
not be significantly changed during the year,” he said.
He
expressed optimism that continued robust remittances
from more than 8 million Filipinos worldwide “should
provide the cushion” for the inflationary impact of high
oil prices.
“Besides, the exchange rate has proven firm while demand
for Filipino labor is inelastic,” he said.
Guinigundo also said the impact of any wage increase,
given the continued agitation of the labor sector for
another round of wage hikes, should also prove limited.
Previously, Maria Cyd Tuano-Amador, BSP managing
director for the monetary policy subsector, told
reporters of the blunted impact of any wage hike on
growth or inflation given the continued labor-surplus
nature of the economy. |
