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THE
United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
said additional world rice production would be enough
for all if—and this is a big if in today’s ever-changing
weather, laid down on the door of climate change—there
is normal weather all around.
The FAO
said world rice production would increase by 1.8 percent
this year and would be enough to avert a rice crisis in
key rice-importing countries, which includes the
Philippines.
The FAO
also noted the international rice trade is expected to
decrease, mainly due to restrictions in main exporting
countries. Currently, China, India, Egypt and Vietnam
among the traditional rice, exporting countries as well
as Cambodia have either imposed high minimum export
prices, export taxes or export quotas, and even outright
bans at some trigger level to protect their own needs of
the staple.
Sizable
production increases are expected in all major Asian
rice-producing countries, especially the Philippines,
Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar and
Thailand, where supply and demand are currently rather
stretched.
“Production outlook is also positive in
Africa, where high world prices may sustain a 2-percent growth,
particularly in
Egypt,
Guinea, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. Concerns about
food-import dependency in the region have led to a
mobilization of resources toward the rice sector.
Production is expected to recover strongly in Latin
America. Rice production in the European Union is also
expected to rise while it may contract in Japan, one of
the few countries where producer prices fell last year,”
said the FAO.
FAO
senior economist Conception Calpe said, however, that
short-term volatility will continue. “The international
rice market is currently facing a particularly difficult
situation with demand outstripping supply and with the
substantial price increases....This implies that the
market may react very strongly to any good or bad news
about crops or policies.”
According to the latest FAO estimates, paddy production
rose by 1 percent in 2007 to 650 million tons, which
indicates it would be the second consecutive year that
production growth would fall short of population growth,
resulting in a drop of rice production on a per-capita
basis.
The FAO
said that international rice trade this year may reach
29.9 tons, 1.1 tons lower than the revised 2007 trade
estimate because of the very tight supply situations in
most exporting countries that could prevail to the last
quarter and the associated restrictions on exports.
Based on
the FAO All Rice Price Index, international rice prices
have seen a steep increase of about 20 percent. For
instance, in March 2008, the high-quality Thai 100
percent B was quoted at $546 per tonne, up 13 percent
compared to February and 68 percent higher than in March
2007.
The
tendency for further price rises may diminish somewhat
in the next few months, with the arrival of new rice
harvests in Brazil or Uruguay but also in Bangladesh,
India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the
FAO. |
