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    By Rob Pegoraro
    The Washington Post
     

    What’s next for the iPod? 

    I’M in the market for an iPod, but I don’t want to buy one just before Apple comes out with a better model. When’s the next version due?

    If you think it’s tough to play the stock market, try guessing Apple’s product plans. This company follows its own counsel and keeps its own secrets, routinely surprising industry analysts, tech journalists and even the employees in its own stores with new Macs and iPods.

    A variety of rumor-mongering sites—see, for instance, http://macrumors.com and http://appleinsider.com—have sprung up to try to pry these secrets out of Cupertino, California (to which Apple has sometimes responded with lawsuits). But keeping up with all of them can become a hobby in its own right, and their accuracy is often iffy.

    You’re better off looking at how long a particular Apple product has been on sale, on the principle that the oldest models are most likely to be replaced with souped-up versions. You can read past product announcements at Apple’s PR library (http://apple.com/pr), and the MacRumors site also offers a one-page summary (http://macrumors.com/buyersguide) of the lifecycles of Apple’s computers and gadgets.

    That page suggests that the iPod Touch and the iPod Shuffle are safe bets because the former had its memory doubled in February and the latter had its price cut later that month. It advises against buying an iPod Classic, but is neutral on the iPod Nano. I’m not so sure about that last point: the Nano should benefit just as much as the Touch from the declining price of flash memory, so it’s arguably overdue for a memory boost of its own.

    If you time a purchase incorrectly, you may still have luck politely pleading your case at an Apple store. One or two readers have told me that Apple’s stores allowed them to trade in an iPod they’d recently purchased there for a new model released days afterward.

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