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THE
price of various commodities, particularly those of food
and oil, were seen in March to push inflation higher,
averaging between 5.3 percent up to 5.9 percent during
the period.
In a
text message, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor
Amando Tetangco Jr. said this, compared with inflation
averaging only 5.4 percent in February and only 4.99
percent in January.
“The
inflation rate for March is expected within the range of
5.3 percent to 5.9 percent due largely to higher oil and
food prices.
“With
this, the hump we are projecting for this year may be
extended depending on how these supply-side factors
evolve,” he said.
He meant
this: the regime of higher inflation, originally seen
increasing in the first half this year only to taper off
by the second half, should persist longer than
originally believed possible.
Tetangco
vowed to scan the economic horizon for signs of price
inflation going forward before such become persistent
and turn problematic later on. “We will continue to
monitor these risks. Nevertheless, we still expect
inflation to be on target for 2009,” he said.
Next
year’s inflation was seen averaging 3.5 percent, plus or
minus one percentage point or a low of 2.5 percent, but
in no case averaging above 4.5 percent.
Inflation this year, on the other hand, was seen
averaging 4 percent up to 5 percent, plus or minus one
percentage point. The inflation-targeting framework that
the BSP adopted since 2001 has allowed it to project
inflation 18 to 24 months down the line, enabling the
policy-setting Monetary Board to plot out anticipatory
monetary-policy responses well before prices get out of
hand.
This
means it is able to adjust interest rates or work out
bank-deposit reserve levels, among other macroeconomic
variables, consistent with the goal of keeping prices
stable. |
