|
THE
government’s ability to come up with credible statistics
remains unreliable due to the lack of funding and
autonomy, according to a former National Economic and
Development Authority (Neda) official.
University of the Philippines (UP) economist and former
Neda director general Felipe Medalla said that while the
government has announced that its gross domestic product
(GDP) in 2007 was a 31-year high at 7.3 percent, this is
not exactly accurate.
“If the
numbers are contrary to common sense, more likely the
numbers are wrong,” Medalla said in his presentation at
the launch of the Unescap 2008 Economic and Social
Survey in
Pasig City
Friday.
“That
recent economic growth is highest in three decades is,
in all likelihood, statistical fiction. Weaknesses in
the NIA and changes in the way that GDP is measured have
resulted in significant overstatement of economic
growth,” he added.
Medalla
explained that the national income accounts (NIA)
periodically released by the National Statistical and
Coordination Board (NSCB) does not corroborate the
results of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES).
In the
NIA, Medalla cited, personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
in recent years has been higher than expected, which
contradicts the 2006 FIES results which showed that
expenditure of families increased by 3.6 percent while
income only increased by 1.7 percent.
Medalla
noted that the average growth rate of the PCE from 2004
to 2006 was the highest in the last 20 years, but the
growth rate of GNI net of taxes, or GNP adjusted for
changes in the international terms of trade and
taxes, was the lowest in the last 10 years.
“The
national income accounts show the highest growth rates
of GDP and personal consumption after 2000. The FIES
shows the opposite trends. The FIES shows that these are
the worst periods for consumer consumption, but the PCE
and GDP show that [they’re] the best periods for
consumption,” Medalla said.
“The
growth rate of real BIR collections is more correlated
with the growth rate of FIES income than the growth rate
of GDP,” he added.
The
former Neda chief also called attention to agriculture
statistics. The sector is one of the hardest to document
since the Bureau of Agriculture Statistics (BAS) remains
under the control of the Department of Agriculture (DA).
This,
Medalla said, prevents the BAS from coming up with
unbiased data. He said that if the BAS remains under the
DA, the agency has the ability to “tweak” data in (the
mother agency’s) favor of the DA.
“If it
is true that agriculture has grown much faster than
population since 1999, why have prices or imports not
fallen?” Medalla asked aloud.
The
contribution of the industrial sector to economic growth
did not fall based on the NIA, but the National
Statistics Office’s Monthly Integrated Survey of
Selected Industries (Missi) showed that the
manufacturing output of the country has been dismal.
“[The]
Labor Force Surveys and the Missi tell roughly the same
story—which contradicts the manufacturing growth
statistics from the NIA,” Medalla said.
For
statistics to become more reliable, the government must
increase its spending for it. He noted the irony: the
government spent “too little” on this and yet official
government data is considered the backbone of government
planning.
He also
recommended that statistical agencies be “left alone”
and allowed to act independently so that data will not
be suspected of manipulation.
“Statistical agencies should be left alone and allowed
autonomy,” Medalla said. |
