ALLAYING fears of a copra shortage next year, the Asian Institute of Petroleum Studies Inc. (Aispi) clarified Tuesday that production of biodiesel—which will use copra as an ingredient—will not bring about a shortfall in copra production in 2009.

“The 2.43-million metric ton [MT] of copra production or 1.458-million MT of coco oil is not exclusive to biodiesel production alone,” Rafael Diaz, Aipsi managing director, said.

Earlier the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) projected a shortfall of some 100,000 MTs of copra by next year amid a modest uptrend in copra production of 2.43 million MTs by end of 2008.

Diaz said the shortfall of 100,000 MT, or 0.10 million MT in copra production by 2009, would represent a 4-percent reduction from the 2.43 million MT that will be produced this year, reducing it to 2.33 million MT.

“The biodiesel mandate for a 1-percent biodiesel blend (B1) amounts to 63 million liters of CME [coconut methyl ester] per year more or less 54,810 MT by weight, which translates to just 3.8 percent of the total 2008 production,” Diaz said.

Diaz also added the B2 (2-percent biodiesel blend) that will take effect in January next year will require 126-million liters of CME or 109,620 MT by weight representing just 7.5 percent of total 2008 production.

Diaz said the impact of the government’s coconut-fertilization program, which may not have been fully factored into the projected copra production, can very substantially increase the yield of coconut trees that may potentially negate the projected shortfall of 100,000 MT.

Diaz explained that the shortfall in copra production of 100,000 MT by 2009 as stated by the PCA would not be significant enough to affect the required feedstock for a B2 mandate in January 2009.

“After all, 80 percent of our coconut-oil production is effectively an excess of our domestic requirement and the quantity is exported based on Rotterdam Price Index that is virtually controlled and dictated by a handful of big-time seed-crop traders,” he said.

The PCA said the country must produce 2.7 million MT of copra next year to meet the expected demand for coconut methyl ester, but meeting its production targets next year will be a tough call because copra production has continued to drop since 2005 with a production of 2.6 million MT, 2.5 million MT in 2006, and 2.3 million MT in 2007.

This year, the coconut agency projects a 2.43-million-MT copra production, with a program encouraging the use of table salt as fertilizer contributing to the increased output.

The PCA said production dropped in 2006 because of typhoons hitting the country, but this year’s absence of a dry season favors coconut production.

The agency sees copra production hitting 2.6 million metric tons in 2009, thus a 100,000-MT gap in projected demand and supply.

To increase copra production in the next few years, the coconut agency is allotting P1.98 billion this year and P2.59 billion next year. The propagation of salt as fertilizer is a major program of the agency to increase copra production.

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ALLAYING fears of a copra shortage next year, the Asian Institute of Petroleum Studies Inc. (Aispi) clarified Tuesday that production of biodiesel—which will use copra as an ingredient—will not bring about a shortfall in copra production in 2009.