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THE
ongoing Senate investigation into the controversial
$329-million ZTE-NBN contract may be the most frequently
reported event these days, but it is not a significant
factor behind the behavior of the stock market, or even
the economy.
If we’re
talking of the stock market, people would normally wait
for the outcome—whether it will blow over or really
affect the country’s stability.
Actually, the departure of foreign investments from the
Philippine stock market has been happening since last
year, even before the NBN-ZTE deal became the daily news
fare of broadcast and print media.
The main
reason for the departure of what is called “hot money”
was the concern about the looming recession in the
United States, its impact on the global economy, oil
prices and the fears of high inflation. These are all
external factors that have nothing to do with us.
The good
thing is that stock-market investments come and go. Such
so-called hot money comes here today, goes away tomorrow
and back again the following day. The reason there is
some foreign money still left is because prices have
gone too low.
Even
domestic investors in stocks behave the same way. They
buy when prices are low, and then sell when prices are
high. As long as capital goes through this cycle, the
stock market stays healthy.
Now,
with respect to the economy, I also don’t see any
significant impact from the Senate investigation. Our
concern is like those of other countries: the United
States is still one of our major export markets, source
of tourists and remittances from overseas Filipinos. It
is also a major market for countries that buy raw
materials and goods from the Philippines. And so, an
adverse impact in those countries will also affect us.
It’s called the ripple effect.
I agree
with the consensus among market analysts that investors
have already discounted the NBN-ZTE controversy. At
least in that respect, I agree that the Philippine
economy remains strong, and that investments continue to
come in.
Actually, I think that despite its controversial nature,
the Senate investigation is helping define our
democracy. And I like to believe that this is the aspect
that investors see. That’s why they continue to do
business in the Philippines.
A number
of our citizens or some sectors may seem unaware of this
rationale. The current probe is based on the
constitutional principle of check and balance in which
each of the three branches of government—the Executive,
Legislative and Judiciary—makes sure that none of the
three abuses or exceeds its authority. That is why the
Senate has, in addition to its lawmaking function,
another equally important mandate: to fiscalize.
When we
conduct inquiries into alleged irregular transactions
like the NBN-ZTE deal, it means that the Senate is not
closing its eyes to allegations of corruption and other
violations of the law and of the Constitution. It is
recognized that there will be attempts to discredit the
investigation, the witnesses and the institution’s
motives by attaching labels like politicking or even
trying to destabilize the government.
But I
believe that Filipinos are politically mature to see
through the weak defenses being put up to stop the
inquiries and prevent the Senate from exposing the
truth. And I also believe that foreign and local
investors, and even the international community, the
credit-rating agencies and the multilateral
institutions, see the positive side—that we do not
tolerate corruption.
Eventually, I hope our efforts to halt corrupt
transactions and wrongdoing in government will improve
our image in the international community and make the
Philippines an attractive investment site.
So, if
our concern is the economy, we must watch the US economy
and the world oil prices closely. And, at the same time,
we must continue to strengthen our fundamentals. Our
overseas workers, who have been boosting our economy
with their dollar remittances ever since the ’80s, must
receive all the help and all the incentives they
deserve, if only to recognize their contribution to the
national interest.
The
business sector must be encouraged to invest more and
produce more—by reducing red tape and minimizing
government interference, for example—so that they can
generate more jobs and more tax revenues.
More
than all this, we must increase our efforts to fight
poverty. The recent report from the National Statistical
Coordination Board about the increasing number of poor
Filipinos is very disturbing. It shows that the 31-year
high growth in our gross domestic product at 7.3 percent
in 2007 is not enough. I have repeatedly said that we
need to grow at that rate or higher for four or five
years to make sure that the poorest households enjoy the
benefits of economic growth.
The
Senate is doing its part in alleviating poverty and
improving the economy. I personally introduced a bill
that will exempt minimum-wage earners from paying income
taxes, and I am pushing for the passage of legislation
to rationalize investment incentives based on the
recommendations of the business community itself,
including the groups of foreign investors in the
country.
Ours is
a healthy democracy and, as I said, this is what
investors see in the Philippines. We will continue to be
vigilant against corruption, and we will be keen on
driving the economy and improving the lives of our
people.
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