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THE
foreign economic environment is not quite bright this
year, so the Philippines should instead focus on the
domestic front for further Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth, according to the Ateneo de Manila University
economic think tank, the Center for Economic Research
and Development.
“It is
very hard to be bullish in a kind of external
environment that cannot provide impetus to Philippine
growth,” said Cielito F. Habito, think tank director at
the group’s economic and political briefing, “Eaglewatch,”
Wednesday.
Habito,
a former socioeconomic planning secretary, said that
with global growth seen to moderate at 4.9 percent this
year from 5.1 percent last year, mainly because of an
expected slowdown by market giants the US and Japan, it
follows that growth stimulus would have to come from the
prevailing good news at home.
The
target-setting Development Budget Coordinating Committee
pegged GDP expansion this year at 6.1 percent to 6.7
percent. The center’s forecasting model points instead
to a 5 percent to 5.6 percent growth.
But
there is a 3-year strategy, touted as Plan 789, being
firmed up by some of President Arroyo’s advisers, aiming
to accelerate GDP growth to 7 percent this year, to 8
percent next year, and 9 percent by
2009.
Habito
seems to think the ‘789’ plan to be quite high. He said
the foremost challenge for the Arroyo government this
time is how to “spread the benefits of economic growth,”
which can be attained by job-generating growth, among
others.
These
work-producing sectors include the agriculture and
services, particularly business process outsourcing,
whose contribution to the economy is largely
undervalued. “I am not sure if these are enough to get
7- percent growth, inasmuch as I would want that to
happen, but surely it would accelerate growth.”
Among
the domestic drivers he believes would propel economic
expansion this year include tapering inflation, an
improved fiscal position, surging overseas Filipino
remittances, and improving foreign direct investments.
“This
means higher consumption spending, stronger ability for
government expenditures, and investment,” he said.
He said
economic expansion has largely been propelled by
consumption, which made up about 90 percent of recent
figures, such that the “lack of investment-led growth
had resulted into narrow continual narrow-banded
improvements.” ( With M. Gonzalez)
*****
President Arroyo said on Wednesday she will not
officially adopt her new Chief of Staff’s “Plan 789”—or
a gradual acceleration of the gross domestic product
from 7, 8, and 9 percent from 2007 to 2009.
The
President told reporters after her televised roundtable
conference in Malacańang that while she would be “happy”
with the prospect of achieving such high growth, she
would rather stick with the Medium Term Philippine
Development Plan (MTPDP), which provides for 7-percent
growth by the end of her term.
Asked
about the chances of adopting Presidential Chief of
Staff Joey Salceda’s “Plan 789” as the administration’s
official growth target, she said, “I’m sticking to my
MTPDP which is 7 percent by the end of my term.” |
