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A
7-PERCENT growth in the local economy this year is
“numerically plausible and feasibly strategizable,”
basing from a three-year growth strategy the Arroyo
government is taking, it was claimed on Tuesday.
President Arroyo, at a luncheon she hosted for members
of the Economic Journalists Association of the
Philippines, Inc. and the Manila Overseas Press Club,
cited in her speech the government’s gains and as well
its priorities for the coming years—power cost
reduction, food production and infrastructure
development.
“Plan
789 aims for a gradual acceleration in GDP [gross
domestic product] growth from 6 percent to 7 percent..
and break the narrow band of growth that has
characterized Philippine growth where gains are easily
wiped out by a crisis at the end of every cycle,”
Salceda, also an economist, told business journalists.
The
Development Budget Coordinating Committee, which sets
the government’s fiscal and economic targets, pegged GDP
expansion this year anywhere between 6.1 percent and 6.7
percent. Private sector forecasts nonetheless put growth
at a lower range of 5.5 percent to 6.0 percent.
Plan 789
was a derivative of Socioeconomic Planning Secretary
Romulo L. Neri’s Plan 747 that he brought with him to
his first stint as director general of the National
Economic and Development Authority. Neri’s plan calls
for the economy growing 7 percent for the next seven
years through massive resource mobilization.
The
ambitious economic growth in the next three years can be
attained with a shift in key performance targets like
revenue growth from deficit reduction, and to gross
value added “as all-consuming passion” from primary
surplus, Salceda said.
“[The
growth] goes beyond orthodox MTPDP-centric planning,
where the government just sets out targets and prays
that players in the economy will respond positively and
global environment remains conducive,” he added.
The
government under Plan 789 also aims to achieve an
8-percent GDP growth next year and a 9-percent growth in
2009, which Salceda boasted was an “arithmetic
progression of 7 percent [GDP growth] and then 8
[percent].”
The
business sector meanwhile said a 7-percent growth this
year is attainable only if the government’s resources
are now being utilized particularly on infrastructure.
“The
question is if the economy can digest the additional
spending for infrastructure… if it results in additional
jobs or trickles down,” said Donald Dee of the
Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Astro
del Castillo, managing director of First Grade Holdings,
commented that the first-quarter GDP growth figures this
year could confirm Salceda’s claim the economy can grow
as fast as 7 percent.
“Let us
see the first-quarter figures if they are really
spending and it is trickling down… but it is numerically
feasible if the resources are properly spent,” he added.
Salceda
said the difference between the 6.1 percent, DBCC’s
low-end target for 2007, and Plan 789’s 7 percent is
only an additional P55 billion in nominal value; and
given the government’s focus on infrastructure
spending—with an additional P64 billion this year—and
social spending, certain sectors are secured to achieve
growths.
Growth
drivers for the three-year span would be public
investments for this year, foreign investments including
the privatization of Transco and Masinloc next year and
domestic investments in 2009 that will see booms in the
tourism estates and hotels as well as in domestic
manufacturing among others.
“To
sustain traction of investor interest and preserve
consensus for the strategy reforms would be legislated
or implemented such as the preneed code, the Investment
Company Act, the NFA rehabilitation and Epira amendments
among others,” Salceda said. |
