Do not fear the beast

The election season has officially started and everyone is holding their breath.

The economists are worried that election spending may derail the government budget and fiscal program. The good-governance watchdogs are worried that there will be tainted results. The human-rights activists are worried about guns and goons. The public is worried because. . . . the public, with good reason, always worries about our elections.

The election, this time, may be a ferocious beast without teeth. That is, we may be worrying about a bad situation that may never happen.

In a recent meeting I had with a high-ranking senator, he expressed the view that everything is in place for the Philippines to see the economy, and therefore personal wealth, expand and grow dramatically. However, that thought ended with the warning: “If we do not waste another opportunity.” In other words, that familiar line about shooting oneself in the foot again.

There are several reasons why I think that the election is not going to cause the kinds of problems that everyone fears. Understand, however, that I start with the basic premise that most people operate in their own self-interest. For the most part, our human nature dictates that we do things that are individually beneficial. Of course, we often do act in a destructive manner against own our well-being. We let emotions rule when thought would keep us from acting in a way that puts us at risk. Taking revenge is an example of that. We make decisions for short-term gain that ruins our long-term future, such as stealing money from the company for which we work.

Business across almost all sectors is getting better since the middle of last year. Cash flows are improving. Sales and profits are rising. Virtually all components of the macro-economic picture are positive. It is in the best interest of both the administration and the opposition (and especially the administration) to insure that the election goes smoothly to keep the economic ball rolling.

From the administration’s perspective, it can win the battle and lose the war.

The only legacy that the presidency of Arroyo can hope to leave is a strong economy. One measure of that legacy will be the attitude of the international markets and financial institutions toward the Philippines. A most visible sign will be in the credit rating of the nation. No matter what the numbers might show, there is an underlying emotional response to the Philippines found in our international credit score. If the elections prove to be chaotic and “unsatisfying,” it is unlikely that our credit status will improve. This would be a blow to the President and the blame will not be able to be shifted to the opposition. If the elections are a “failure,” the administration will ultimately both take the blame and suffer the consequences.

Public trust in the institutions of government and the political participants is low, whether centered on the administration or the opposition. The public has accepted, although reluctantly, the sometimes foolish behavior of administration personalities. However, there is not a lot of trust and confidence in the opposition. For the time being, the public has lost some of its restiveness, perhaps in large measure because business is better and people are making more money than in the recent past.

A quiet public could turn very vocal if the election is severely tainted. People are not stupid. They also know that the economy will falter badly if the election is not, from their view, successful. It is unlikely that their anger will be limited to the politicians in power but would probably turn very ugly if they realize that the “politicians” have messed things up again. Forced to resort to some sort of People Power, we might witness a purge if the “reformers” in the military gain public acceptance and support this time around.

Finally, it appears that the international community will be closely following and scrutinizing our May 2007 elections. The USA has indicated that it is interested in our process, and with certain European countries looking at the “extra-judicial” killings, the Philippines is in the limelight.

It appears that the politicians have taken the bold move of asking for more transparency knowing that additional “sunlight” will bring greater rewards if this election goes well. It is a calculated risk. If the elections go well with the world watching, investments will dramatically increase. If the opposite happens, the world will shut the door on this country. I believe (while praying at the same time) that our politicians are smarter than they sometimes behave.

E-mail comments to mangun@email.com.

“Eradicating disconnectedness is the defining security task of our age, as well as a supreme moral cause in the cases of those who suffer it against their will. Just as important, however, by expanding the connectivity of globalization, we increase peace and prosperity planet-wide.”—Thomas Barnett, political and military strategist and author of Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty First Century

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