Business and elections

The month of January has been the month of predictions for the year 2007. The manghuhula have had their say. Their stature in the Philippines is such that they make predictions about nearly everything. They are taken just as seriously as their counterparts in political science, economics, business and finance.

Business and financial analysts, as well as think tanks, have also been making pronouncements about 2007. The multilaterals and rating agencies have not been quiet either. Whenever they pontificate about the Philippine economy, they land in the front pages of newspapers and occasionally merit a screaming headline.

Lately, bank officials and businessmen have been quoted in the media as expressing concerns about elections. Since they are presumably more knowledgeable than the manghuhula, it is useful to take a second look at their forebodings.

Elections as disruptions to the economy

I have listened to several briefings conducted by investment houses and read the pronouncements of financial analysts. They all agree that 2006 was a good year and that 2007 will even be better. They cite macroeconomic numbers. The global investment banking firm, Lehman Brothers, applauds the Philippines’ “virtuous spirals.”

The only fly that they see threatening the smooth economic ointment for 2007 is elections. An official of a large investment house was quoted as saying that if the opposition wins at least 79 seats in the House of Representatives, the President would be in danger of being impeached. If she would be impeached, all the gains of 2006 and the rosy predictions for 2007 will fall to naught.

It is very easy to come to the conclusion that responsible voters should vote for administration candidates and do everything in their power to prevent such a “catastrophic” event!

People in the business and finance community who are making these public statements truly believe that a shift in the current balance of power will surely derail the country’s inevitable march to progress. As they make their PowerPoint presentations, chat in cocktails parties, give interviews and pose in the society pages, they wonder why other sectors don‘t agree with them.

Financial indicators and real benefits

Financial analysts and business forecasters are looking at financial indicators. The rest of Philippine humanity are looking for real benefits. They have yet to see these “economic gains” translated into more jobs and higher incomes for the average Filipino.

Economists have pointed out that in 2006, unemployment further increased by 200,000. Social Weather Stations reported that hunger has reached an all-time high of 19 percent. We continue to have among the highest rates of infant and maternal mortality. Poverty rates remain stubbornly high. We are not prepared for the next round of supertyphoons, landslides, floods and volcanic eruptions. We have not even recovered from last year’s devastation.

In other words, the “virtuous spirals” are benefiting only certain sectors of the economy while the majority struggle grimly for survival. Is it any wonder they look for relief in elections?   

No less than Neda Secretary Romulo Neri has recognized the Sisyphean challenge of creating real benefits in a society characterized by chronic poverty, unemployment, hunger, disease and environmental destruction.

Words, words, words!

The government recently unveiled “the biggest antipoverty program ever.” Costing a staggering P200 billion, it is composed mostly of projects destined for the super regions. The problem is, the poor are not necessarily concentrated in the super regions. They are in the “unsuper” regions. If the government is really serious about poverty reduction, it should focus on the regions where the poor are actually located.

The business of elections

For good reason, many Filipinos consider elections a waste of time and public funds. They don’t welcome interruptions while they create more and more wealth for themselves. Others only see corrupt politicians perverting the elections. Still others have totally given up on politicians and elections.

Like it or not, however, elections remain as the last peaceful mechanism for democratic reform. For many Filipinos, other alternatives are too dreadful to contemplate. To hint that the present administration must be supported in the coming elections is to lay to rest questions about its doubtful legitimacy, tolerate blatant human rights violations, participate in, and abet corruption, and ignore demands for public accountability.

One cannot assume that the present administration must be supported because: (a) it is responsible for the present economic growth, limited as it is; and (b) this growth will collapse if administration candidates lose. One can easily answer “not true” to both arguments.

Economic growth will not be derailed if citizens from all sectors participate in the electoral process, vote only for those who are qualified, and see to it that results are credible. By citizens, we also mean citizens who are in business. 

‘Lack of transparency and disclosure tends to throw sand in the cogs of infrastructure and undermines the Philippines’ national competitiveness,” says a paper presented before a recent forum urging the passage of a Philippine version of the US Freedom of Information Act.

The month of January has been the month of predictions for the year 2007. The manghuhula have had their say. Their stature in the Philippines is such that they make predictions about nearly everything. They are taken just as seriously as their counterparts in political science, economics, business and finance.

Sometime in 1938, a young boy was to graduate at the top of his elementary class in the fishing town of Hagonoy in Bulacan. It was to be one of the happiest moments in the life of Felix Ople, a tradesman, and his wife, who, despite their own limitations, had nurtured the boy’s keen interest in reading and learning more about the “world out there.”

Sent by God to stand before the people and deliver the divine message, the prophet fears being crushed and rejected by the people. But his strength is from the Lord who is with him (Jeremiah 1:4-5, 17-19). If God’s spokesman has something always timely to tell us even at the risk of rejection, it is that God does not conform to our narrow definition of charity and service, which is basically an inadequacy in faith (Luke 4:21-30).