THE cast of The Departed, nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.

THE Screen Actors Guild Awards, which happens on Sunday at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles, California, have always closely resembled the Oscars, but this Sunday night’s gala might truly be an early sneak peek at what the Academy Awards will be.

Never before has there been such amazing overlap between the two awards’ lists of contenders. Out of the Oscars’ 20 nominees for acting, 19 are repeated at SAG. Three categories line up exactly. The other—Best Supporting Actor—disagrees on only one entry: the Oscars nominated Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) while SAG opted to list Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)

MEGAN MULLALLY in Will & Grace, nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series.

There’s an impressive overlap of winners, too, historically speaking. Over the past 12 years of the SAG Awards’ existence, they agreed 8 times with the Oscars on Best Actor and 10 times on lead actress. Overlap in the supporting races is less impressive: 50 percent on the male side; 7 out of 12 in the race for supporting actresses.

Over all, there’s a greater degree of agreement among nominees because of the way Oscar participants are determined. Fifteen hundred actors who belong to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences pick Oscar’s acting contenders, whereas SAG nominees are determined by 2,100 members chosen randomly among of the guild’s 110,000 national membership.

All SAG members vote on the winners. Ditto for all 5,800 academy members, but that’s where the two awards differ. Art directors and hair stylists end up judging the final Oscar lineup. Since only actors vote for SAG, the result is more “pure”—and therefore perhaps even more legit and worthy if the goal of both awards is to get film work evaluated by one’s peers.

Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) and Helen Mirren (The Queen) are the heavy faves to win Best Actor and Actress, considering that they won every other top showbiz award so far. Four out of six experts who make predictions at The Envelope’s Buzzmeter pick Whitaker for lead actor (Edward Douglas, Comingsoon.net; Pete Hammond, HollywoodWiretap.com/Maxim; Gene Seymour, Newsday, and Clay Smith, “The Insider”). One picks Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (Claudia Puig, USA Today) and one (me) opts for Peter O’Toole (Venus). All agree upon Helen Mirren in the actress’ race.

Here’s how our experts project the race for supporting actor: Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls (Douglas, Seymour, Smith), Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine (Hammond, Puig), Leo DiCaprio in The Departed (O’Neil).

Supporting actress: all agree on Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls.

Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine (Douglas, Hammond, O’Neil), The Departed (Puig), Babel (Seymour, Smith).

KATE WINSLET in Little Children, nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role.

Predictions are difficult this year because of the wild-card effect of DVD screeners. Having 110,000 members, SAG is usually considered to be too expensive to blitz, but last year Crash won the ensemble award after becoming the first film to do so. Since the ensemble award is widely considered to be a precursor of Best Picture at the Oscars, the Crash victory helped to fuel the film’s awards buzz right after it was shut out of the Golden Globes.

This year three films followed suit by sending DVDs to all SAG members: The Departed, Venus and Little Miss Sunshine. If all three pull off big victories, the timing will be excellent since academy members will receive final ballots this upcoming week.

Upsets could help the Academy Award’s biggest loser (Venus star Peter O’Toole has been snubbed seven times) to derail the Whitaker juggernaut and get Oscar satisfaction at last. And a victory in the ensemble race may help Little Miss Sunshine to topple The Departed, Babel or Letters from Iwo Jima in the Oscar best picture race.

However, Peter O’Toole won’t be present at the Shrine Auditorium Sunday night. If he wins, will that matter? O’Toole hasn’t appeared in Hollywood yet this awards season.

Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) won’t attend either. She’s busy teaming up with Al Gore to cohost the 10th annual benefit for Harvard Medical School’s Center for Health and the Global Environment. Considering that Mirren is such a heavy favorite in the lead actress’ race, Streep may not feel she’s missing much, but some kudos-watchers disagree. Some experts believe that the SAG Awards show a subtle bias toward Americans. If so, Streep may benefit from being the only Yankee in the best actress race.

Among the SAG TV awards, it’s possible that the upcoming winners may look a lot like that last Emmy or SAG champs. Very few stars from new TV shows got nominated. The only rookies: America Ferrera (Ugly Betty), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), and Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) in the solo acting races and Ugly Betty in the ensemble category.

There’s some controversy over Boston Legal. Last year it competed as a comedy series. This year it switched to the drama side.

Grey’s Anatomy is also competing as a drama even though it has lots of comedic touches. No one is laughing over the travails of star Isaiah Washington, however, as he struggles to cope with the outcry surrounding his antigay slur. If Grey’s wins as expected, fans wonder if Washington will be allowed to join his cast mates on stage.

The Screen Actor’s Guild Awards air this Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on TBS and TNT.

From the Hip: Some Things I’ve Learned

AFTER the first day of January, the rest of the month is a letdown. January has always been housekeeping season for me: in my personal as well as in my business life. The relatively slow period allows me to reflect on things I otherwise would have little time for. The last quarter of the past year was filled with many challenging and unusual circumstances that have compelled me to re-evaluate my life and think of some lessons these fateful events have taught me. 

Gab Fab: Celebrity contretemps at Embassy

A FRIEND of mine makes it a point to go to Embassy at least once a week.

To him, Embassy is something of a mecca for temporary visas for guests desperate to escape the harsh realities of office deadlines. For a few hours in one night, he says, the habitués of Embassy drink and dance the night away as if there isn’t that upcoming comedy of a national election.

And the ‘actor’ will go to...

THE Screen Actors Guild Awards, which happens on Sunday at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles, California, have always closely resembled the Oscars, but this Sunday night’s gala might truly be an early sneak peek at what the Academy Awards will be.

ONWARD CHRISTIAN’S SOLDIERS

FASHION is a battleground of the best of the brightest artists and artisans. The ill-equipped, no matter how talented and skillful, can easily be cowered by such factors as peer competition, average business acumen or lackluster marketing. Having a mentor can prove to be a major advantage.

They’re Going, Going . . . Gaunt

IF anyone ever needed evidence of why industries should not be allowed to police themselves, the Council of Fashion Designers of America just provided it.