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FINALLY,
those rascally, confounding, elusive Oscar nominations
will be announced on Tuesday morning. Who’ll make the
cut?
Best Picture
(Likely)
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
(Possible)
American Gangster
Atonement
Juno
Into the Wild
Diving
Bell, Clayton, No Country and Blood
were all nominated by both the directors’ and producers’
guilds, so they look strong. Of those two guilds, the
directors’ choices have the best predix rate. This year
DGA’s fifth choice was Wild, but that may just be
because those helmers are fawning over another
actor-turned-director (Sean Penn). They actually swoon
more shamelessly over actors in that category than Oscar
voters!
Everybody seems to be swooning most over the fifth
choice of the PGA—Juno—so that’s why it rounds out my
list, but beware of Gangster, too. It’s the
highest-grossing “serious” movie of the year and that’s
usually a guarantee of a nom. Also, Universal is
blitzing LA with for-your-consideration ballyhoo, which
proved successful for its past ponies Ray and Seabiscuit.
Atonement won the Golden Globe and leads with the most
Bafta bids, so it’s a major player, too. After all, it
began derby season as the early frontrunner to win and
hasn’t really tripped up. Reviews have been strong—raves
from the Los Angeles Times, Variety and The Hollywood
Reporter—and box office has held up ($30 million in
limited release, up until this past weekend anyway).
Still, perception is that it’s fallen faaaaaar behind.
Like my poor, beloved Sweeney Todd.
Best
Director
(Likely)
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly
(Possible)
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Jason Reitman, Juno
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Denzel Washington, The Great Debaters
Joe Wright, Atonement
Don’t
expect this race to line up with best pic. There may be
enormous deviations. Among the chaps in the second tier
here, Gilroy and Penn got DGA bids.
Best
Actor
(Likely)
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
(Possible)
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
Gosling
and Hirsch got Screen Actors’ Guild (SAG) noms, so they
seem most likely to claim the fifth slot out of the
second tier. Depp got shut out by SAG and Bafta, but
guild voters didn’t get DVD screeners and Bafta voters
got them very late. Based on Hollywood buzz, he’s lookin’
good. Beware: Denzel’s an academy fave and there’s lots
of love for Gangster. James McAvoy (Atonement)
has longshot hopes.
Best Actress
(Likely)
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
(Possible)
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth, The Golden Age
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages
The top
four look safe, but that fifth slot is a head-scratcher.
Blanchett, inexplicably, keeps popping up with noms
despite Golden Age being widely ridiculed and
dismissed as a film. Keira has lots of support, but not
lots of face time in Atonement. I have a sneaky
suspicion that Linney is the fifth nominee. They like
her so much they even nommed her for Kinsey, which was
largely overlooked otherwise. |
