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ROLAND
Avante, a treasurer at Chinatrust (Philippines)
Commercial Bank, comments on the outlook for the
Philippine peso and interest rates.
The peso
weakened for a sixth day, its longest losing streak in
10 months. The currency lost 0.96 percent to P41.595 per
dollar, according to the Philippine Dealing and Exchange
Corp.
“Global
developments and the winding down of the carry trade are
affecting regional currencies, including the peso.’’
“The
peso will continue to trade in aberration because of
global risk aversion. The underlying fundamentals of the
currency and of the Philippine economy haven’t
changed.’’
“Some
people are finding P41.50 to the dollar a good level to
reinstate their position.
“We’re
still enjoying inflows from remittances, although
they’re not as substantial as the November-December
level. There’s also an inflow from call centers.’’
The peso
“can drop to P41.60 to P41.70 but can go back to 41 or
even stronger once the Fed moves.’’
On US
and Philippine interest rates:
“What’s
crucial in the next couple of days is how the Fed would
react. The markets are sending a signal for the Fed to
cut and to cut in a big way. A 50-basis-point cut is a
certainty. Some are already speculating on 75 basis
points.’’ A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
“Everybody’s waiting for the move that will have a
calming effect on the markets.’’
“In the
Philippines, I think a 25 basis-point cut is also a
certainty. The question is, until when can the central
bank keep this pace. Inflation is becoming a concern.’’
US
policymakers next meet to review interest rates on
January 30. The Philippine central bank meets the next
day. |