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DESPITE
volatility in financial markets across the world,
consumers in Asia-Pacific are optimistic that 2008 will
be another rosy year, with consumer confidence outlook
for the first half of the year up on the level reported
six months and a year ago.
These sentiments were gleaned in the
latest MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence
findings, which tracks consumer confidence half-yearly
for the six-month period ahead.
Overall outlook across Asia-Pacific with
regard to the economy (68.3), regular income (81.0),
stock market (66.5) and quality of life (66.7) have
improved from the previous survey which was done in May
2007. The view on employment (63.8) remains constant.
Sentiments in the Philippines continue
to improve from six months and a year ago. The current
index score (67.7) is the highest since the fourth
quarter of 1997.
The current fairly optimistic sentiments
in the local market are supported by a highly positive
outlook on regular income as well as large improvements
in sentiments toward the stock market. With the
exception of sentiments on quality of life, outlook for
the rest of the indicators have improved from six months
ago, said the survey report.
The volatility in financial markets
across the world, announcement of heavy subprime losses
by global financial heavyweights, rising oil prices and
inflation costs seem not to have dampened confidence for
the first half of 2008.
The
MasterCard Index is the region’s most comprehensive and
longest-running consumer confidence survey. The scores,
ranging between 0 and 100, are based on responses on
five variables: employment, economy, regular income,
stock market and quality of life. Scores above 50
indicate extent of optimism, scores below 50 indicate
the extent of pessimism, and 50 being neutral.
Ten of
the 13 Asia/Pacific markets posted an increase in
consumer confidence levels. Vietnam (94.3) continues to
top the region’s markets as the most buoyant in consumer
sentiment for the six-month period ahead, followed by
Hong Kong (85.9), China
(85.5) and Singapore (83.6). Korea shows the largest
increases in optimism, with its index score increasing
15.6 points to 64.1.
“This
latest consumer confidence reading of the region is
broadly consistent with the short-term outlook of
economic conditions of the key regional markets. It is
not surprising to see China and Vietnam continue to be
strongly optimistic, whereas at the opposite end of the
spectrum is Taiwan.” Said Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong,
economic advisor of Asia/Pacific, MasterCard Worldwide.
He
added: “Weak domestic consumption in Japan is also
reflected in its confidence index slipping back into
pessimistic territory. For 2008 the critical
uncertainty is therefore China, which has become an
increasingly important market for exports from the rest
of
Asia. Can its economic expansion stay robust in spite of
weakening global demand? Depending on the performance
of the
China
market, outlook for the second half of 2008 might be
very different.”
The
latest MasterCard Index survey was conducted from
October 8 to 29, 2007 for all markets except
Indonesia
(which was conducted from October 18 to November 5
because of Ramadan). It involved 5,411 consumers across
13 key Asia/Pacific markets.
In its
14th year, the six-monthly survey analyzes prevailing
consumer perceptions of economic conditions for the
six-month period ahead. |
