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NOW that
the Court has decided on the plunder case against former
President Joseph Estrada, the business community sighed
with relief that no rioting erupted, although, on second
thought, the longer-term effect of his conviction drew
mixed expectations—mostly rosy from businessmen and
rather less sanguine from economists.
One of
the groups elated over the calm that has not erupted
into a storm is the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (PCCI), its president Samie Lim saying that at
the most, the business community will only be affected
“for just a few days. The business community is more
mature now. They are not affected by political noise.”
Another
is the Philippine Exporters Confederation, with its
president Sergio Ortiz-Luis saying, “It won’t affect the
economy negatively as long as there is no violence on
the street.”
The
foreign business community was also optimistic. Peter
Wallace of the Australian Chamber of Commerce hopes that
Estrada will not bring the case to the streets as this
will “achieve nothing” and instead just appeal his case
if he really believes he is innocent.
“I think
we should accept the court’s decision. This is a legal
decision, not a political one,” Wallace said, adding one
good thing coming out of this is that it has proven the
judicial system in the country works.
Michael
Wootton of the British Business Council said the
decision is not expected to send jitters to foreign
investors since this is just another one of those
“political dramas” that Filipinos go through regularly.
“People have come to realize that this is how things are
in the Philippines.”
Jose
Luis Romero-Salas, La Camara president, said Spanish
businessmen are not unduly concerned since they have
come to take in stride the political rumblings and
concentrate more in the business of economic growth
instead.
The
apparent serenity widespread among businessmen led
Ortiz-Luis, also honorary chairman of the PCCI, to urge
President Arroyo to immediately extend the hand of
reconciliation and pardon Estrada.
He added
that allowing him to go through the “emotionally charged
processes of appeal” and putting him in jail will only
raise emotions of the numerous followers of Estrada to
boiling point, which could trigger a lot of trouble.
The
academe is not as sanguine as the businessmen,
specifically the professional economists. One of them,
University of the Philippines economist and former
Budget Secretary Professor Benjamin Diokno said its not
only unruly protests that could turn the Erap conviction
into an economic problem.
He said
investors are more concerned with what happens to the
Philippine International Air Transportation Co.s’ claim
over the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 3
and the messy NBN contract that has ensnared
administration figures in allegations of big-time graft.
“The
decision is subject to appeal and not final but
investors know that politics is a major factor in the
decision. GMA’s poor governance record remains and
Philippine society is still divided with real risk of
deterioration,” said Diokno.
“At
best, the division and uncertainty continues with
investors more concerned with Piatco and NBN scandals.
At worst, political stability worsens,” he added.
Diokno,
the Budget Secretary of Estrada, also said that nothing
has changed even after Estrada was convicted and that
the government continues to be hounded by problems.
“Erap’s conviction does not in any way legitimize the
power grab in 2001. Problems of law and political
stability remain.”
But some
economists think Estrada’s conviction may be good for
the economy in general, highlighting as it seems that
the rule of law is working.
“Erap’s
conviction is a signal that somehow the rule of law in
this country is working. Foreign direct investors may
also be encouraged,” said private economist Bienvenido
Oplas Jr.
Oplas
said that based on the Economic Freedom of the World
Index, the country is among the lowest ranked in terms
of justice and protection of property rights so that the
conviction would improve the global perception of the
country.
University of Asia and the Pacific economist Peter Lee U
agreed but cautioned that if protests become louder,
this may not bode well for investor confidence and
economic stability.
He also
said the conviction shows the rule of law is working but
this may only be true as long as street protests do not
erupt and become unruly.
On the
working economic front, PCCI president Lim said the peso
could weaken and stock markets may decline in the coming
days following the guilty verdict.
Speaking
at the weekly Fernandina Forum at the Club Filipino in
Greenhills, San Juan, he said, however, if that happens
it would only be shortlived—perhaps three days to one
week.
He
reiterated his view that the “business sector have
already become immune to the political scenarios in the
country, making it easy for them to adapt in the
situation. . .we can survive this.”
He
reported the PCCI will come out with a position paper
over the decision of the Sandiganbayan after their board
meeting next week.
In far
southern
Philippines,
the business sector in Mindanao believes the decision
will greatly affect investments in their area especially
since people will perceive it as “incredible.”
The PCCI
in Mindanao do not anticipate trouble in the streets,
however. Estrellita Juliano-Tamano, PCCI vice-president
for Mindanao said, “It will of course have a big effect
especially on investors that we are expecting now.”
Antonio
Veneracion, president of the General Santos Chamber of
Commerce and Industry, said that “life has to go on” for
them in Mindanao despite any political turmoil. “We will
take this as an opportunity.” |
